EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PRICING IN GLOBAL AGRI-FOOD MARKETS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35774/sf2026.02.228Keywords:
global agri-food markets; FAO Food Price Index; pricing; food price volatility; structural breaks; econometric analysis, exports, value chains.Abstract
Introduction. In the context of increasing economic, climatic, and geopolitical challenges, global agri-food markets are characterized by growing food price volatility and the emergence of new pricing patterns, which necessitates a deeper empirical analysis of their development.
The purpose of the article is to conduct a comprehensive empirical analysis of pricing processes in global agri-food markets based on the FAO Food Price Index by assessing price dynamics, volatility, time-series stationarity, structural breaks, and the implications of the identified trends for Ukraine as one of the key participants in the global agri-food market.
Results. The empirical basis of the study consists of 435 monthly observations of the FAO Food Price Index and its sub-indices for the period 1990–2026. The research employs descriptive statistics, ADF and KPSS stationarity tests, STL decomposition, and the Binary Segmentation procedure. The findings indicate that a new pricing regime emerged after the 2007–2008 global food crisis, characterized by persistently higher real food price levels. The average value of the aggregate index increased from 66,5 points in the 1990s to 123,8 points in 2020–2026. Vegetable oils and dairy products demonstrated the highest growth rates. Significant heterogeneity in volatility across commodity groups was identified: vegetable oils, cereals, and sugar exhibited the highest instability, whereas meat prices remained relatively stable. Four major structural breaks (2007, 2014, 2021, and 2023) associated with global economic and geopolitical shocks were detected.
Conclusions. The results confirm the emergence of a structurally new regime in global agri-food markets after 2007, characterized by elevated price levels and persistent sensitivity to external shocks. For Ukraine, the findings are of practical importance given the high dependence of its agricultural exports on global price conditions and the need to account for these trends in the formulation of economic and food security policies.
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