LOCAL CONFLICTS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Roman ZVARYCH

Анотація


Introduction. The research of theoretical principles of the impact of local conflicts on the global economy requires an economic understanding of such strategic phenomena as the arms race, the creation of international alliances and the economic effects of military spending. The risks, threats and challenges of direct and indirect losses received by both sides of the conflict also have a negative impact on both third parties and the global economy as a whole. As a result, global leaders and actors involved in conflicts reflect on the effectiveness of their participation in the confrontation. That is why the analysis of local conflicts and assessment of their value in the global economy, given the direct participation of Ukraine in one of these, actualizes the research topic.

The purpose is to analyze global changes that provoke local conflicts and research of the cost of local conflicts in the global economy.

Methods. In the research process, a set of research methods and approaches were used: monographic and graphical methods, methods of system analysis, systematization, classification, logical, theoretical and generalizations.

Results. The unfair distribution of the benefits of globalization threatens conflicts at the regional, national and international levels. Civil or internal wars became widespread, and these “new” wars became clear only in the context of political, economic, and military globalization. There is a correlation between rising war spending and increasing quantity of conflicts. The cost of conflict in the global economy is extremely high, because in addition to the destruction of families, communities and countries, conflicts have negative global economic consequences. The war in Ukraine has significantly affected its economy and financial system, leading to significant material losses due to the physical destruction of housing, infrastructure, social and industrial facilities.

Conclusions. Global leaders and key global actors must act quickly and prevent escalation of local conflict. The protection of civilians and their property and the provision of humanitarian and medical assistance should be a priority for participants involved in existing conflicts. A favorable direction for overcoming local conflicts is “investment in humanity”, namely investment in stability, local infrastructure, in order to diversify resources and increase their efficiency. An audit of the costs and benefits of the parties to the conflict will help to understand that the economically they have short-term gain in times less than the income they would have received in the absence of these conflicts.


Ключові слова


military conflicts, hybrid war, global peace index, economic value of conflict, local conflicts, conflict success function

Повний текст:

PDF>PDF

Посилання


Dunne, J. P., Garcia-Alonso, M., Levine, P., Smith R. (2006). Managing asymmetric conflict. Oxford Economic Papers, 58, 183–208.

Collier, P., Hoeffler, A. (2004). Greed and grievance in civil wars. Oxford Economic Papers, 56, 563–595.

Intriligator, M. (1982). Research on conflict theory. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 26(2), 307–327.

Kasperovych, Yu. (2018). Metodychni pidkhody do otsinky fiskalnykh vtrat Ukrainy vnaslidok hibrydnoi viiny RF [Methodical approaches to estimating the fiscal losses of Ukraine due to the hybrid war of the Russian Federation]. Ekonomika ta derzhava – Economy and State, 12, 8-15. Available at: http://www.economy.in.ua/pdf/12_2018/4.pdf.

Malley, R. (2019). 10 conflicts to watch in 2020. Foreign Policy. Available at: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/26/10-conflicts-to-watch-2020.

Pashkov, M. (2019). Viina na Donbasi: realii i perspektyvy vrehuliuvannia [The war in Donbass: realities and prospects for settlement]. Razumkov Centre, 144. Available at: http://razumkov.org.ua/uploads/article/2019_Donbas.pdf.

Richardson, L. F. (2012). Arms and insecurity – a mathematical study of the causes and origins of war. Literary Licensing, LLC, 334.

Sandler, T. (2000). Economic analysis of conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44(6), 723–729.

Hirshleifer, J. (2000). The macrotechnology of conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44(6), 773–792.

The 2019 global multidimensional poverty index (MPI). (2020). United Nations Human Development Reports, 5, 1–2. Available at: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/mpi_2019_table_1.pdf.

UN. (2020). Chislo bezhentsev v mire dostyhlo pochti 80 mln chelovek [The number of refugees in the world has reached almost 80 million people]. Deutsche Welle. Available at: https://www.dw.com/

Global Peace Index 2019. (2019). Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), 3–9. Available at: https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/GPI-2019-web003.pdf.

Hroisman, V. (2014). Poperednia otsinka vartosti vidnovlennia Donbasu ta zabezpechennia potreb peremishchenykh osib [Preliminary assessment of the cost of reconstruction of Donbass and meeting the needs of displaced persons]. Uriadovyi portal – Government Portal. Available at: https://www.kmu.gov.ua/ua/news/247600303.

Adarov, A., Astrov, V., Havlik, P. (2015). How to stabilise the economy of Ukraine. Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, 100. Available at: https://wiiw.ac.at/how-to-stabilisetheeconomy-of-ukraine-dlp-3562.pdf.

Rusnak, І. (2017). Zbytky vid konfliktu na Donbasi dosiahly 50 miliardiv dolariv [The losses from the conflict in Donbass reached $ 50 billion]. Radio Svoboda. Available at: https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news/28595287.html.

Aslund, A. (2018). Kremlin aggression in Ukraine: the price tag. Atlantic Council, 22. Available at: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wpcontent/uploads/2018/03/Kremlin_Aggression_web_040218_revised.pdf.

Kravchenko, V. (2018). Ahresiia Rosii proty Ukrainy: obsiahy vtrat i mozhlyvosti reparatsii [Russia’s aggression against Ukraine: the amount of losses and the possibility of reparations]. Espreso.TV. Available at: https://espreso.tv/article/2018/03/30/agresiya_rosiyi_proty_ukrayiny_obsyagy_vtrat_i_mozhlyvosti_reparaciy.

Poroshenko, P. (2014). Odyn den ATO koshtuie 100 milioniv [One day of anti-terrorist operation costs 100 million]. Ukrainska pravda – Ukrainian Pravda. Available at: https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/12/20/7052735/.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.35774/sf2020.02.088

Посилання

  • Поки немає зовнішніх посилань.


ISSN 1818-5754 (print), ISSN 2415-3672 (online)
West Ukrainian National University
© "WOF", 2004-2019