МОНЕТАРНІ РЕЖИМИ ТА МАКРОФІНАНСОВА ВРАЗЛИВІСТЬ У СИРОВИННИХ ЕКОНОМІКАХ
Анотація
Козюк В. В. Монетарні режими та макрофінансова вразливість у сировинних економіках.
Розглянуто структурні й інституціональні детермінанти більш вірогідного вибору монетарного режиму фіксованих курсів в сировинних економіках. Показано, що ефективність такого режиму забезпечується активною фіскальною політикою щодо “міжчасових заощаджень”, завдяки чому фіксовані курси дадуть змогу нейтралізувати інфляційні наслідки швидких злетів сировинних цін. Проаналізовано, що така мікс-політика не гарантує макрофінансової стабільності за умов конвертації ресурсного багатства в соціальний добробут і одночасної глобальної фінансової інтеграції. Наголошено на необхідності поєднання фіскальної політики “міжчасових заощаджень” з більш гнучкими курсами та інструментами макропруденційного регулювання.
Козюк В. В. Монетарые режимы та макрофинансовая уязвимость в сырьевых экономиках.
Рассмотрены структурные и институциональные детерминанты более вероятного отбора монетарного режима фиксированных курсов в сырьевых экономиках. Показано, что эффективность такого режима обеспечивается активной фискальной политикой в отношении “межвременных сбережений”, благодаря чему фиксированные курсы позволяют нейтрализовать инфляционные последствия быстрых взлетов сырьевых цен. Проанализировано, что такая микс-политика не гарантирует макрофинансовой стабильности в условиях конвертации ресурсного богатства в социальное благополучие и одновременной глобальной финансовой интеграции. Констатируется необходимость сочетания фискальной политики “межвременных сбережений” с более гибкими курсами и инструментами макропруденциального регулирования.
Kozjuk V. Monetary regimes and macrofinancial vulnerability in commodity economies.
Introduction. Commodities prices drop down shows that vulnerability of resource rich countries dramatically change by last 20 years. Traditional external wealth management and stable exchange rates may not guaranty adjustability of such countries to global prices reverses. Monetary policy regime in any way should be added by sufficient fiscal intertemporal policy and macroprudential regulation.
Purpose. Taking into account that commodity rich countries may accumulate large external liabilities during windfalls period fixed rate monetary regime is not enough to maintain macrofinancial stability. So it should be proved that new global environment require more comprehensive policy mix.
Results. Structural and institutional determinants of preferable fixed exchange rates monetary regime in commodity economies is considered. It is shown that such regime efficiency is determined by active fiscal policy of intertemporal savings that support fixed rates to neutralize inflationary effects of commodities windfall. It is stressed that such policy-mix is not guaranty macrofinancial stability in the case of convertibility of resource abundance into social welfare with global financial integration. Resource-rich economy is facing new channels of macrofinancial vulnerability: corporate external borrowing, direct market borrowing of banking system, household sector leverage, property prices booming. Large external assets are not insurance against financial distresses originated by commodities prices cycle with credit and assets prices cycles. It is concluded that fiscal policy of intertemporal savings should be added by more flexible exchange rates with instruments of macroprudential regulation.
Conclusion. Traditional fixed rate monetary regime with active external wealth management may not guaranty macrofinancial stability of resource rich countries while they are became more integrated with global financial system. Countercyclical fiscal policy may support to maintain price stability but not react on abnormal leverage of private sector. New policy-mix should include monetary policy with more flexible exchange rates, intertemporal savings and active macrofinancial regulation.
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Література :
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References :
Eichengreen, B. (2012). Implications of the Euro’s crisis for international monetary reform. Paper prepared for session a new international monetary order at the Allied Social Science Associated Meetings. Chicago, 1–7.
Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R. (1999). Exchange rate and financial fragility. NBER working paper, 7418, 1–54.
Aliyev, I. (2013). Procyclicality in resourcerich countries. Ministry of finance of the czech republic working paper, 1, 1–24.
Corden, M. Exchange rate policy and resource boom. Economic record, 58 (March), 19–31.
Aliyev, R. (2012). Monetary policy in resource-rich developing economies. CERGE-EI working papers, 466, 1–49.
Auty, R. (2001). The political economy of resource-driven growth. European economic review, 45, 839–46.
Auty, R. (2001). Resource abundance and economic development. Oxford : Oxford University Press.
Arezki, R., Bruckner, M. (2010). Commodity windfalls, polarization, and net foreign assets : Panel data evidence on the voracity effect. IMF working paper, WP/10/209, 1–25.
Wills, S., van der Ploeg, R. (2014). Why do so many oil exporters peg their currency? Foreign reserves as a de-facto sovereign wealth fund. Paper presented at the joint RES-SPR conference on “Macroeconomic challenges facing low-income countries”. IMF. Wash. DC, Jan. 30–31.
Aliyev, R. (2014). Determinants of the choice of exchange rate regime in resource-rich countries. CERGE-EI working papers, 527, 1–36.
Obstfeld, M. (2000). Globalization and macroeconomics. NBER Reporter. Fall.
Frankel, J. (2010). How can commodity producers make fiscal and monetary policy less procyclicall? Paper presented on high level seminar on natural resources, finance and development. Algiers, Nov. 4-5, 1–34.
IMF (2015). World economic outlook, 2, 65–104.
Frankel, J., Smit, B., Sturzenegger, F. (2008). Fiscal and monetary policy in commodity based economy. Economics of transition, 4, 417– 48.
Habib, M. M., Manolova Kalamova, M. (2007). Are there oil currencies? The real exchange rate of oil exporting countries. ECB working paper, 839, 1–39.
Mattoo, A., Subramanian, A. (2008). Currency undervaluation and sovereign wealth funds : A new role for the World Trade Organization. Institute for International Economics Working Paper, WP-08-02.
Arnone, M., Laurence, B., Segalotto, J-F., Sommer, M. (2007). Central Bank Autonomy : Lessons from global trends. IMF working paper, WP/07/88, 1–53.
Caruana, J. (2016).Credit, commodities and currencies. Lecture at the London school of economics and political science. London.
IMF (2015). World Economic Outlook, 1, 1–63.
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